War Allover

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During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future.

Corrections are part of the normal "shock market" menu, and can be brought about by either bad news or good news. (Yes, that's what I meant to say.) Investors always over-analyze when prices are weak and lose their common sense when prices are high, thus perpetuating the "buy high, sell low" Wall Street line dance. Waiting for the perfect moment to jump into a falling market is as foolish a strategy as taking losses on investment grade companies and holding cash.

Repetition is good for the brain's CPU, so forgive me for reinforcing what I've said in the face of every correction since 1979... if you don't love corrections (and deal with them like visiting relatives) you really don't understand the financial markets. Don't be insulted, it seems as though very few financial professionals want you to see it this way and, in fact, Institutional Wall Street loves it when individual investors panic in the face of uncertainty. Psstt... uncertainty is the regulation playing field for investors, and hindsight isn't welcome in the stadium.

A closer examination of the news that's fit to print (but isn't printed often enough) should make you more confident about the years ahead, whatever your politics.

The good news is very, very good: 1. Employment, jobs, and unemployment numbers are as good or better than they have been in years. 2. Manufacturing numbers are stronger and trending upward. 3. The "core" inflation rate is historically low. 4. Interest rates are also historically low. 5. Durable goods orders are trending upward. 6. Corporate earnings reports have been strong. 7. Corporate dividend payouts have been increasing. 8. Equities, as an Asset Class, are considered the most fairly valued, when compared with Real Estate, Fixed Income, and Commodities. 9. Income Tax Rates are at low historical levels, particularly with regard to investment income. 10. Gross domestic product is growing.

The bad news isn't all that bad, pretty much the same ole stuff: 1. Hurricane Damage. We've actually had fewer major storms than anticipated. The ones we've had were devastating, but the rebuilding/preparation task ahead will be good for the economy. 2. War in Iraq. There's always been a war of some kind, somewhere. It's bad, but only the battlefield has changed... and war has also always been good for the economy. 3. Politics. We have an unpopular President who can't seem to get out of his own way. Who were the last ones that were loved? Didn't they have wars? 4. Wall Street/Corporate scandals. Hardly new and never economy busters. 5. Energy prices. I still don't see gas lines, and maybe somebody will push for added refining capacity. 6. Trade deficits. News would be giving foreigners more money so that they could buy more of our products. 7. High consumer debt. New? Not. 8. The terrorism threat. A major serious problem for the past how many years? The federal regulatory agencies probably do more damage to the economy. 9. The Avian Flu pandemic? Maybe, but not yet, and we'll really need those bad boy drug companies then, won't we? 10. The Anniston/Pitt break up, and neither the Yankees nor the Bosox in the World Series. Now we're talking!

Clearly, there are no new (economic) problems to be overly concerned about. And for now, we simply (and I mean simply) have to deal with the opportunities at hand. Low, but increasing, interest rates force fixed income prices down and yields up... Opportunity One! Economic good news encourages higher rates to reduce inflationary pressures causing equity prices to trend downward... Opportunity Two! These forces of good are intersecting with the dark side of calendar year mentality Wall Street, causing premature tax loss selling and portfolio Window Dressing... Opportunities One and Two squared!

There is an Investment Mindset Solution for the problems that most people have dealing with corrections, and rallies too, for that matter. I've never understood why "yard sale prices" here are so scary. What if you cut off a finger each time you get a splinter? Wounds heal, and so do the prices of High Quality securities.

In recent years, Wall Street and the media have turned the process of investing into a competitive event of Olympic proportions and stature. What was once a long term (a year is not long term), goal directed activity, has become a series of monthly and quarterly sprints. The direction of the market isn't nearly as important as the actions we take in anticipation of the next change in direction. Performance evaluation needs to be rethunk (sic) in terms of cycles!

The problems, and the solutions, boil down to focus, understanding, and retraining. It would be impossible to cover each of these issues here, but here are a few teasers. You need to focus on the purposes of the securities in the portfolio. You need to understand and accept the normal behavior of your securities in the face of different environmental conditions. You need to overcome your obsession with calendar period Market Value analysis, and switch to a more manageable asset allocation approach that centers on your portfolio's Working Capital.

But for now, relax and enjoy this correction. It's your invitation to the fun and games of the next rally.

Steve Selengut
sanserve@aol.com
800-245-0494
http://www.sancoservices.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"

Import Export in Germany

After the end of World War II, Germany took various steps in order to reconstruct its economy and has certainly achieved significant economic success. This magical economic recovery has put Germany into the third spot after US and Japan in among the world's largest economies. The careful choice of fiscal and monetary policies adopted by the German government has played a crucial role in turning around the economy. Utilizing Marshall Plan aid to the optimum, building friendly relations with the social partners and adopting plans for rebuilding played a major role in reviving the economy after the damage suffered by it in World War II. Germany adopted an economic policy with main focus on creating social market economy. This idea involved letting the market forces govern the growth of the economy, while the government, mainly focuses on improving the status of poor and neglected, and checking the flaws in the market.

Germany had a thriving economy, which though, suffered huge set backs when the East and West Germany were united in the year 1990. The decline in economy was mainly because of the differences between the economic structures of two parts of Germany.

This together with ageing population and rising unemployment contributed in further deterioration of the economy. The labor market suffering from slow economic growth and unclear incentives is the main hindrance in both hiring and taking work. However, the business reforms and increasing capital markets are providing the much need impetuous that will help Germany to attain its long-terms goals and meet the challenges of European and Global economies.

Public sector reforms and fiscal consolidation and interconnecting them, and to further enhance the capacity of the economy in order to create more employment opportunities and to boost the productivity growth are the major challenges that Germany faces today. Innovative economic steps are also needed for creating new business enterprises and widening the competition in product markets. Reducing administrative costs and removing entry barriers should boost more competitive product markets.

Germany still remains one of the leading exporters of the world. However, its export declined in beginning months of 2009, German exports to USA declined by 27.4% or $4.1 billion in comparison to the same period in 2008. This may be attributed to the allover weakness witnessed by major economies throughout the world lately.

The GDP or Gross Domestic Product is greatly related to the international trade. Germany's GDP in 2009 was $2.8 trillion. 95% of Germany's GDP comes from its export and import. $1.5 trillion is the figure for Germany's worldwide exports and $1.2 trillion is the amount of its imports. In comparison, exports and imports constitutes about 23% of USA's GDP.

United States imported about 7.5% of the total German exports, making it the second largest consumer of the German goods. France, Britain, Italy, Holland, Austria, Belgium and Spain are the other major consumers of German goods.

$1.2 trillion worth of goods was imported by Germany in the year 2008. Major part of imports was from European Union with China and USA being the other leading countries.

About the Author

Learn more about Export Import Germany - Visit Germany Import Export website.

Would the American public support the War in Afghanistan even if we received heavy casualties?

I've talked with many people around the world and many of them are friends. They say that America is a paper tiger because we can't take casualties in a war.I always say we can. but as I have read from message boards it appears many Americans say that Afganistan will be like Vietnam allover again, and they say we should leave the country. I was shocked that these people have forgotten about the 3,000 Americans killed in 9/11. So I ask if we receive heavier casualties in Afganistan then Iraq would the American public still support and would the approve of a draft if need be to fight al qaida and the taliban. or would the spoiled brat college folks say no. I would personally go if my country needed me in a draft. What you think the American people will do if a draft occured for the war in afganistan?

All around the world people have become selfish and care only for their own ass and their own pocket. The loss of unity and values and the differentiation between right and wrong is the main trend nowadays.

In the past winning a war was the goal. It was simple - An evil character causes problems and disturbs peace, negotiations fail, you go to war, wipe the enemy out in an all-out war(over 21 million civilian casualties in WW2) and voila - status quo restored. Nowadays however, it's more like negotiate, negotiate and some more negotiation. Then when you finally attack, you must work your way around the civilians while your own soldiers risk their life only to get condemned within a few months because a few citizens were harmed.

And it's the same thing all around the world - In Afghanistan, In Iran, In Gaza and in a way, even in North Korea. In all those places there's some bad people who wants to cause trouble, yet it's the USA government, the Israeli government and so on are the ones who get blamed.

I wish I could say people protest against the war because their own soldiers get killed, unfortunately, nowadays, it's more popular to see people protesting a war because a few of the enemy's civilians got killed. Don't get me wrong - Civilian casulaties are horrible, but it's unavoidable in war. Anyone who served in a western army knows that the army works double time to prevent civilians coming to harm. Even though it is war. Even though they're the enemy's citizens. Even though the soldiers' life is on the line and any civilian could be an enemy. But still, people all around the world protest against it, not realizing that it's the way to SAVE life, not end it. If Hitler wasn't stopped, how many more would die? There's atrocities commited by Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Hamas in Gaza, yet no one speaks against them, because it's not about the civilians or the soldiers, it's about "what's cool". Just like picking Obama. He's a respectable candidate, but many voted for him just because it was "the cool thing to do", which was obviously the wrong reason to pick a candidate.

In USA, Israel and many other western armies who go against the bad guys, the situation is pretty much the same - It's indeed a paper tiger - The army is the tiger and the leftist liberal civilians who care only about their own ass and their own pockets turn it into a paper one.

Frank Hightower spared no expense at The Cellar Restaurant
When Frank Johnson Hightower took on a project, he not only aimed for the bull’s-eye, he refused to quit until he hit it."Frank Hightower didn’t see any sense in doing things unless it was going to be done perfectly,” said his widow, Dannie Bea.To achieve perfection, Hightower needed vision and the means to see it through. He had both.Frank Hightower was born in 1922 and died Oct. 10, 2000. He ...

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